REGIONAL SECURITY KNOWLEDGE HUB: THE AMERICAS

The goal of this rubric is to filter and promote the recent scholarship on the Americas coming from the leading IR and Area Studies journals. The Regional Security Knowledge Hub team periodically refreshes the list, in winter, spring, summer and autumn. If you are interested in getting updates on the new content, please subscribe to our newsletter.

2025

“Global Climate Politics after the Return of President Trump,” by Jeff Colgan and Federica Genovese, International Organization, 79, no. S1 (2025): S88–102.

Abstract: The second Trump administration has disrupted global climate politics, turning the United States away from the clean energy and environmental policies of the Biden administration. Consequently, analytical attention is turning, inside and outside of the United States, to a family of concepts referred to as “Climate Realism” (CR), which favors long-run investments in technology and adaptation over near-term climate mitigation efforts. We critically engage with CR and argue that political science identifies four key features of climate politics that shed light on CR’s strengths and weaknesses, and which will persist even in the second Trump era. Despite CR’s flaws, we contend that its emergence in reaction to the second Trump administration highlights some important dimensions of climate politics that deserve greater attention going forward. We highlight three topics for research: the political and practical strategies of the anti-green coalition; the heterogeneity in viable national economic strategies; and the implications for IR of a turn away from meaningful climate mitigation in powerful nations.

Link: https://doi.org/10.1017/S002081832510115X

“The Ambivalent Relationship between South America and the Liberal International Order: Regional Counter-institutionalization in the Fields of Migration and Election Monitoring,” by Giovanni Agostinis and Leiza Brumat, Latin American Politics and Society, 67(3), 45–68 (2025).

Abstract: Under what conditions do South American states create regional institutions that consolidate or undermine the liberal international order (LIO)? To address this question, we compare two cases of contestation of the LIO through counter-institutionalization in the domains of migration and election monitoring, both of which are closely related to the LIO’s core political principles. We argue that the variation in the effects of counter-institutionalization—LIO-consolidating in the case of migration and LIO-undermining in the case of election monitoring—results from the interaction of two explanatory factors: the source of dissatisfaction with the LIO’s norms and institutions in a specific domain, and the preferences of the state that exercises regional leadership in support of counter-institutionalization. The article sheds light on the coexistence of liberal and illiberal tendencies in South America’s regionalism and contributes to the debate on the determinants and effects of contestations of the LIO in the Global South.

Link: https://doi.org/10.1017/lap.2025.1

“Is Latin America Pro-Palestine? Israel’s Arms Diplomacy, Solidarity, and the Genocide in Gaza,” by Bruno Huberman, Middle East Critique, 34 (4): 725–47 (2025).

Abstract: This article examines the contradiction between Latin America’s political support for Palestine and its extensive military and economic ties with Israel. While governments and social movements in the region have voiced solidarity with Palestinians, particularly during the 2023–2025 Gaza genocide, this support remains largely symbolic. Using the concept of Israel’s ‘arms diplomacy’, the article argues that military and economic relations with Israel, particularly in Brazil, Mexico, Colombia, and Chile, reinforce US imperialism in Latin America. Despite the resurgence of left-wing governments in the region, security dependencies on Israel limit more substantive critiques or actions against Israeli settler colonialism. Overall, the study concludes that the portrayal of Latin America as pro-Palestine is misleading, as material relations with Israel prevent the region from adopting a truly anti-imperialist stance.

Link: https://doi.org/10.1080/19436149.2025.2515303

“Vital encounters: Violence, multiple (in)securities and the reproduction of ordinary life in Colombia,” by María Ximena Dávila, Security Dialogue, 56 (6): 761–776 (2025).

Abstract: This article examines the relationship between violence, (in)security, and the reproduction of ordinary life, focusing on the significance of mundane survival practices and their connection to the emergence of scenarios of collective action and politicization. Based on the experiences of women from the Colombian Caribbean region, this article explores how ordinary interactions aimed at satisfying individual and urgent needs end up having community-level consequences and amplifying women’s political subjectivity. These interactions, I argue, can be conceptualized as vital encounters – seemingly uneventful encounters with the potential of transcending the short-lived temporality in which they exist, becoming crucial spatial-temporal instances for collective security-making. Conceptually, vital encounters contribute to a nuanced understanding of the manifold dimensions of (in)security that collide and converge in contexts with different manifestations of chronic violence. As such, vital encounters engender a sense of security that transcends crisis-centric paradigms, which tend to gravitate towards a warlike logic that sees security as the neutralization of a military enemy or the protection from armed violence.

Link: https://doi.org/10.1177/09670106241237633

“Building Partner Capacity: US Aid to Security Sector Actors,” by Patricia Sullivan, Giovanny Rincon Alvarez, and Nathan Marx, Journal of Conflict Resolution, 69 (6): 1033–1058 (2025).

Abstract: This article introduces the US Aid to Security Sector Actors (USASSA) dataset, the product of a collaboration between academic researchers and the nonprofit Security Assistance Monitor. In addition to providing the most comprehensive source of data on US security assistance, the USASSA dataset transforms detailed information about how security assistance funds are spent into aid and recipient typologies that can be used to conduct more sophisticated analyses of how this foreign policy tool is employed, its utility, and its limitations. Our data clearly show not only the magnitude and geographic reach of US security assistance, but also its diversity. While some security assistance is akin to humanitarian aid, other types of assistance blur the line between foreign aid and proxy warfare. We demonstrate the utility of the dataset with an exploration of whether the effects of US security assistance on human rights violations and domestic terrorism vary across types of aid.

Link: https://doi.org/10.1177/00220027241276156

2024

“Peace Versus Profit: Rebel Fragmentation and Conflict Resurgence in Colombia,” by Frank Wyer, International Organization, 78 (4): 701–30 (2024).

Abstract: Why do rebel splinter groups emerge during peace processes, and who chooses to defect? Since Colombia’s landmark peace agreement with the FARC in 2016, roughly half of the territory once controlled by the group has seen a resurgence of rebel activity by FARC splinter groups. I argue that the FARC’s return to arms is a case of “middle-out fragmentation,” whereby opportunities for profit induce mid- or low-ranking rebel commanders to establish splinter groups. In Colombia, I argue that profits from the cocaine trade incentivized local-level FARC officers to defect from the peace agreement and allowed them to rapidly mobilize viable splinter groups. I offer several lines of evidence for this argument. I first construct a chronology of splinter group formation, which demonstrates that mid- and low-level commanders, rather than high-level commanders, were the key drivers of fragmentation. Second, I show that splinter groups emerged in areas where opportunities for profit were greatest. Among areas previously controlled by the FARC, those with coca cultivation prior to the peace agreement were up to thirty-seven percentage points more likely to see splinter groups emerge by 2020 than areas without significant production. Using soil and weather conditions to instrument for coca cultivation produces similar results. Further, I use a novel measure of how critical each municipality is to drug trafficking to show that areas that are theoretically most important for drug trafficking are also more likely to see FARC resurgence. I also address competing explanations related to state capacity, terrain, and popular support for the rebels. These findings highlight an important challenge to peacebuilding: satisfying the political demands of rebel leadership is a necessary but insufficient component of peace agreements in cases where opportunities for profit motivate fragmentation from the middle out.

Link: https://doi.org/10.1017/S0020818324000213

“Brazil’s Position in the Russia-Ukraine War: Balancing Principled Pragmatism While Countering Weaponized Interdependence,” by Dawisson Belém Lopes and Karin Vazquez, Contemporary Security Policy, 45 (4): 599–611 (2024).

Abstract: As a post-colonial nation that embraces international law and multilateralism, Brazil was expected to side with those who defend the sanctity of Ukraine’s territorial integrity when the country was invaded by Russia. However, as a Global Southern country with tangible geopolitical and economic interests at stake in the war, Brazil turned a blind eye to Russia’s defiant move and downplayed the gravity of its breach of the law. This article aims to explore the contradictions in Brazil’s foreign policy stance towards the Russo-Ukrainian war. It analyes the difficult balance between ideals and concrete goals that Brazilian diplomats strive to achieve in the ongoing war. In doing so, it also sheds light on the current administration’s strategies to cope with today’s emerging multipolar order and to avoid falling prey to the “weaponization of interdependence”. The article concludes reflecting on Brazil’s quest for an actively non-aligned position to address the sovereignty paradox it faces in the context of the Russia-Ukraine war.

Link: https://doi.org/10.1080/13523260.2024.2384004

“Competing Visions of Restraint,” by Miranda Priebe, John Schuessler, Bryan Rooney and Jasen Castillo, International Security, 49 (2): 135–169 (2024).

Abstract: At least since the U.S. invasion of Iraq in 2003, a subset of realists, conservatives, and progressives have called for greater restraint in U.S. grand strategy. Given that restraint is a key position in the grand strategy debate, this article explores the variations within restraint’s big tent in greater detail. Drawing on writings by and interviews with advocates of restraint, we identify the underlying beliefs that have led these disparate groups to converge on restraint. We find that there are competing visions of restraint. Realists want to prevent the emergence of regional hegemons without provoking great power war; conservatives seek to preserve what they identify as the American way of life; and progressives are motivated by the desire to combat inequality and injustice at home and abroad. Even within each group, there are a range of underlying beliefs and foreign policy preferences, and more divisions have emerged in response to the Russian invasion of Ukraine and China’s rise. We explore how these groups’ positions may evolve in the future as the threat environment continues to change and new policy questions emerge.

Link: https://doi.org/10.1162/isec_a_00498

“Reining in Rebellion: The Decline of Political Violence in South America,  1830–1929,” by Raúl L. Madrid and Luis L. Schenoni, International Security, 48 (3): 129–167 (2024).

Abstract: During the nineteenth century, South America was plagued by internal rebellions that destabilized the region’s economies and political systems. At the beginning of the twentieth century, however, levels of political violence throughout the region declined dramatically. Existing scholarship has paid surprisingly little attention to this historic transformation, in part because comprehensive data on revolts have been lacking. Historical narratives and an analysis of a comprehensive new dataset on all revolts in South America from 1830 to 1929 show that the decline in revolts stemmed in large part from the expansion and professionalization of the region’s militaries, which were driven by the export boom and the threat of interstate conflict. Nevertheless, not all types of rebellions declined precipitously during this period, as an original typology of revolts shows. Although the strengthening of the region’s armed forces discouraged revolts by non-state actors, it did not significantly reduce rebellions from within the state apparatus, such as military coups.

Link: https://doi.org/10.1162/isec_a_00479

“How peacekeeping has reshaped Latin America,” by Nicole Jenne, International Affairs, 100 (3): 1001–1022 (2024).

Abstract: The United Nations Stabilization Mission in Haiti (MINUSTAH, 2004–2017) was an unprecedented effort of Latin American peacekeeping. Nine countries contributed the majority of troops to the mission in which regional governments sought to handle a security crisis in their neighbourhood rather than leaving the lead to western countries. However, when the mission came to an end after thirteen years, peacekeeping faded from the regional and national security agendas, with the exception of Uruguay. How and why did MINUSTAH impact the region’s current hesitation to engage in peace operations? To answer this question, the article draws on assemblage theory and uses data from policy documents, academic literature and previous research on peacekeeping in Latin America. I argue that contrary to what Latin America’s current, limited peacekeeping engagement suggests, MINUSTAH produced significant changes in the region’s political landscape. While these could have paved the way to greater involvement in peace operations, however, parallel developments shaped Latin American security policies and military planning at the expense of the region’s future participation in UN peacekeeping. The article adds to existing scholarship by probing the conditions that drive the temporality of assemblages and provides a new perspective on Latin American peacekeeping.

Link: https://doi.org/10.1093/ia/iiae077

“Populist international (dis)order? Lessons from world-order visions in Latin American populism,” by Deborah Barros Leal Farias, Guilherme Casarões and Daniel F Wajner, International Affairs, 100 (5): 2003–2024 (2024).

Abstract: The study of populism’s international links has grown significantly. Yet, there are gaps in conceptualizing potential implications for the international order. Our study contributes to filling this gap by asking: if a ‘populist international order’ (PIO) were to emerge, and populists could envision the world close(r) to their liking, what would this order look like? We pursue answers through a plausibility probe of three deductively-derived normative pillars: 1) cooperation under a PIO is characterized by more fractured, mostly symbolic, small-scale multilateralism; 2) a PIO relies on a narrow, selective embrace of the rule of law, to be respected only when seen as representing the wishes of the ‘real people’; and 3) the commitment to pluralism in ‘international society’ is replaced by an anti-pluralist, monolithic notion of popular sovereignty as the primary behavioural driver. Our analysis is based on contemporary populist leadership from Latin America: Brazil’s Jair Bolsonaro, Venezuela’s Nicolás Maduro and Mexico’s Andrés Manuel López Obrador. We examine how these populists have addressed our proposed PIO pillars in different ways and shaped their world-order visions in relation to them. The lessons derived from this study can contribute to bridging gaps regarding the effects of global populism in International Relations, including prospects of mitigating the systemic impact of populism on the international order.

Link: https://doi.org/10.1093/ia/iiae179

“When socialization fails: breaking the habit of engagement with China,” by Michaela Pedersen-Macnab and Steven Bernstein, International Affairs, 100 (5): 2113–2132 (2024).

Abstract: Why do states sustain failing policy? The literature on path dependency and cognitive habits shows how foreign policy logics become axiomatic. Yet these explanations focus too much on people and not enough on policies. We argue that the content of policies matters for the degree and depth of their entrenchment. Policies with long-term time horizons, immeasurable objectives and diffuse effects are especially vulnerable to stasis. Engagement policies toward China are a paradigmatic example. We focus on Canada’s engagement policy, which exhibits both stasis and change, and refer to similar policies of other countries. Drawing on primary evidence including interviews with high-level diplomats and decision-makers, we find that engagement aimed at socializing China was sustained despite growing evidence of its failure—including through a multi-year diplomatic crisis. Change only became possible through ‘institutionalized debate’, meaning the purposeful creation of formal channels for debate. The article makes three contributions. First, we identify a novel explanation of stasis, showing that the content of policies matters. Second, we introduce a practical pathway—institutionalized debate—that can disrupt stasis once a policy logic is habituated. Finally, we identify an aspect of socialization ignored in the literature: when operationalized as policy, it becomes resistant to reversal.

Link: https://doi.org/10.1093/ia/iiae114

“No Safe Haven: Operation Condor and Transnational Repression in South America,” by Francesca Lessa and Lorena Balardini, International Studies Quarterly, 68 (2): sqae035 (2024).

Abstract: Transnational repression, i.e., the deliberate targeting of refugees and dissidents by states across borders, is a relatively understudied subject in international relations. This article analyzes why states act together to persecute political opponents abroad and explains variations in such practices. It proposes a theory of cooperation in transnational repression and uses the case study of Operation Condor in the 1970s to test it. Through Operation Condor, South American authoritarian states willingly forewent key aspects of their sovereignty to establish a sophisticated system of cooperation to target dissidents abroad. This scheme was a critical extension of these countries’ domestic-level policies of repression against political opposition and enabled them to target politically active refugees wherever they were located. Exiles were perceived as constituting an existential threat to these autocracies’ survival, given their ability to potentially undermine both their internal and external regime security, which therefore warranted their elimination. We draw on an interdisciplinary methodology, which combines archival research, interviews, trial observation, and the analysis of legal verdicts, alongside conclusions derived from our novel dataset, the Database on South America’s Transnational Human Rights Violations (1969–1981).

Link: https://doi.org/10.1093/isq/sqae035

2023

“S400s, sanctions and defiance: explaining Turkey’s quest for strategic autonomy and the US response”, by Hüsna Taş Yetim, Ayşe Hazar, Southeast European and Black Sea Studies 23 (1), 2023.

The United States Congress enacted CAATSA in 2017 to impose various restrictions on traditional rivals of the United States, which, however, was also imposed on a long-term strategic ally, Turkey. How can the application of sanctions designated for strategic rivals and enemies on an ally be explained? This article incorporates the hierarchy theory with Kai He’s negative balancing strategy notion, which provides a solid theoretical explanation for patron states’ punitive measures against their allies. We argue that CAATSA is part of the United States’ current negative balancing strategy, which aims to undermine the power of rising challengers, Russia and China, by preventing (Western) secondary states, including Turkey, from getting (nuclear) weapons from these two countries. In this context, the US used CAATSA sanctions to punish Turkey’s non-compliant and autonomous foreign policy behaviour when Russia and China rivalled the US-led order.

https://doi.org/10.1080/14683857.2022.2095698

“Ukraine, Multipolarity and the Crisis of Grand Strategies”, by Alan Cafruny, Vassilis K. Fouskas, William D. E. Mallinson, Andrey Voynitsky, Journal of Balkan and Near Eastern Studies 25 (1), 2023.

Russia’s illegal invasion of Ukraine has unleashed the largest and most lethal war on the European continent since 1945. Vladimir Putin and the Russian government bear most of the responsibility for the invasion and its terrible humanitarian consequences. However, explanations for the war deriving from Russian domestic political dynamics or Vladimir Putin’s imperial nostalgia do not provide a comprehensive understanding of the crisis that led to war. Situating the crisis and ensuing invasion within the broader historical context of post-Cold War relations, we argue that the war in Ukraine has two main sources. The first is the longstanding Anglo-American grand strategy of NATO consolidation as a vehicle for political and economic domination in Europe. The second is the grand strategy of Russia. Unable to accommodate itself on an equal basis in the new U.S.-led post-Cold War global capitalist order, Russia gradually adopted a geopolitical and nationalistic agenda of confrontation in response to NATO’s seemingly inexorable eastward advance, its increasing participation in ‘out of area’ activities, and the United States’ illegal invasions of Serbia, Iraq, and Libya. The collision of these grand strategies has triggered simultaneously a struggle for Ukrainian sovereignty and independence and a U.S.-Russia proxy war.

https://doi.org/10.1080/19448953.2022.2084881

“Organized Crime and Foreign Direct Investment: Evidence From Criminal Groups in Mexico”, by Ana Carolina Garriga, Brian J. Phillips, Journal of Conflict Resolution, Volume 67 (9), 2023.

How does organized crime affect foreign direct investment (FDI) in developing countries? Some research examines the effects of crime, such as homicide rates, on FDI. However, we know little about how organized crime in particular might affect such investment. This paper examines organized crime and FDI in Mexican states between 2000 and 2018. This case is important because Mexico is one of the top global recipients of FDI. At the same time, criminal violence has killed hundreds of thousands of people in Mexico in recent years, and scholars seek to understand the violence’s wider effects. We explain how organized crime competition, as opposed to crime generally, should shape investors’ decisions. Analyses using original data on criminal organization territory find that higher numbers of criminal groups are associated with lower levels of new FDI. Other measures of crime, such as homicide rates or crime rates, are not associated with foreign investment.

https://doi.org/10.1177/00220027221145870

“Remember Kabul? Reputation, strategic contexts, and American credibility after the Afghanistan withdrawal”, by D.G. Kim, Joshua Byun, Jiyoung Ko, Contemporary Security Policy, Published online: 05 Sep 2023.

We examine how a great power’s past behavior toward an informal security partner affects the broader credibility of its security commitments, focusing on the implications of America’s dramatic troop withdrawal from Afghanistan in 2021 as perceived by the U.S., South Korean, and Chinese publics. Against conventional wisdom, we show that knowledge about a great power’s decision to abandon an informal partner in one region of the globe can help increase confidence about its alliance commitments elsewhere. Our survey experiments identify a striking disjuncture: Although Americans tend to believe that the abandonment decision in Afghanistan will hurt their country’s credibility in East Asia, no such effect is found in South Korea and China. In fact, East Asian respondents who are reminded of the Afghanistan withdrawal become more confident about American security commitments when alerted to the possibility that this decision will help Washington to concentrate additional military capabilities in their region.

https://doi.org/10.1080/13523260.2023.2253406

“Peace that antagonizes: Reading Colombia’s peace process as hegemonic crisis”, by Richard Georgi, Security Dialogue, Volume 54 (2), 2023.

This article explores how disruptive political conflicts evolve in peace processes by studying Colombian human rights defenders’ discourses about the peace process with the FARC-EP. While post-conflict scholarship has predominantly discussed violence and societal frictions as caused by legacies of war or flawed peace governance, I focus on the confrontations over political imaginaries that are endemic to peace processes. Through the lens of post-foundational discourse theory, I read the peace process as hegemonic crisis. This allows me to unpack the entanglement of political change and conflict, to which my discussions with human rights defenders allude: On the one hand, the peace agreement opened a political moment, in which it seemed possible to leave behind the hitherto hegemonic imaginary of the conflict as terrorism that had protracted the ‘state of war’; the advocacy for peace with social justice, on the other hand, it restaged historical confrontations with elites of the political right as antagonistic conflict over the meaning of peace. My analysis not only challenges the paradigm of war-to-peace transition, but also defines discursive conditions under which disruptive conflicts turn a peace process into an enduring interregnum, where the dawn of the post-conflict epoch is perpetually deferred and activist lives are threatened.

https://doi.org/10.1177/09670106221084444

“Vaccine Diplomacy: How COVID-19 Vaccine Distribution in Latin America Increases Trust in Foreign Governments”, by Elena Barham, Sarah Zukerman Daly, Julian E. Gerez, John Marshall, Oscar Pocasangre, World Politics 75 (4), 2023.

Vaccine distribution in the Global South has created opportunities for vaccine-developing countries to improve their international reputations. Leveraging a panel survey conducted in early 2021, this article evaluates whether vaccine diplomacy affects trust in foreign governments in six Latin American countries. Among vaccinated respondents, trust in the government of the country that they believed developed their vaccine increased relative to trust in the governments of other foreign powers. Furthermore, providing information about the aggregate distribution of vaccines within a respondent’s country increased vaccine-eligible respondents’ trust in the governments of countries from which more vaccines were delivered. In each case, greater trust principally reflects updated perceptions of a common good motivation. The article’s empirical findings suggest that vaccine distribution—especially by China, but for other vaccine-developing countries as well—can cultivate favorable international public opinion. These favorable opinions may in turn facilitate great powers’ economic, political, or military foreign policy goals.

https://doi.org/10.1353/wp.2023.a908776

“The Ruling Group Survival: Why Pakistan and Hungary Move Away from the US-led Order?”, by Ali Balcı, Furkan Halit Yolcu, Foreign Policy Analysis, 19 (1), 2023.

Why do some smaller states signal to move away from the US-led liberal order? We look at the ruling group survival in smaller allies to answer this pressing puzzle. Despite accepting the merit of systemic explanations, we simply argue that the ruling groups in smaller states engage with revisionist powers in the international system to sustain and enhance their privileged positions in the domestic policy setting. Hungary, a NATO member, and Pakistan, a traditional ally of the United States, have long been showing signs of shifting toward the China/Russia axis. We explain the behavior of Hungary and Pakistan during the 2010s by focusing on the survival strategies of key ruling groups in those countries. We simply argue that relations of competing great powers with the ruling group in smaller states determine the fate of asymmetric alliance.

https://doi.org/10.1093/fpa/orac026

“Ontological (in)Security and the Iran Nuclear Deal—Explaining Instability in US Foreign Policy Interests”, by Morgan Thomas Rees, Foreign Policy Analysis, 19 (3), 2023.

On July 14, 2015, under the leadership of the Obama administration, the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action—referred to as the Iran Nuclear Deal—was signed. After 35 years of diplomatic isolation, the agreement marked a watershed moment in the United States–Iran relations and achieved a key US national security objective regarding nuclear non-proliferation. However, the agreement faced significant domestic opposition grounded in concerns that Iran was untrustworthy. Yet, the prospect of withdrawal generated a sense of insecurity that the United States’s status as a “responsible world leader” would be undermined, despite ongoing anxieties around Iran’s compliance. What explains such a paradox in foreign policy preferences? By incorporating discursive institutionalist approaches with ontological security perspectives, I work to show how President Obama’s entry into the agreement generated ontological insecurities as he struggled to displace existing narratives around Iran as a hostile, untrustworthy actor. Yet, Iran’s compliance with the agreement made it equally difficult for Trump to justify withdrawal; instead, his efforts raised additional concerns that America’s international standing would be undermined. Theoretically, this paper incorporates discursive institutionalist insights with ontological security to disaggregate how different conceptions of the “Self” are contested and activated in policy debates in ways that lead to instability and variation in US foreign policy.

https://doi.org/10.1093/fpa/orad013

“How Canada’s Indo-Pacific strategy conflicts with ASEAN’s outlook on the Indo-Pacific”, by Shaun Narine, International Journal: Canada’s Journal of Global Policy Analysis 78 (1-2), 2023.

Despite giving lip service to the importance of respecting the “centrality” of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), Canada’s Indo-Pacific strategy (CIPS) conflicts with the ASEAN Outlook on the Indo-Pacific (AOIP). Instead, Canada defines its position in the Indo-Pacific through the lens of American priorities and perspectives. For its part, the AOIP expresses an ASEAN consensus position but fails to capture the highly complex and varied views of different ASEAN states toward the US and China. The ASEAN states are status-quo powers navigating a region that is undergoing profound strategic and economic changes. By allying itself so firmly with the US, Canada participates in sowing tension in the Indo-Pacific and may face potential consequences in the longer term. CIPS allows little room for the complex regional relations that the ASEAN states are trying to balance.

https://doi.org/10.1177/00207020231175876

“The AUKUS umbrella: Australia-US relations and strategic culture in the shadow of China’s rise”, by Lloyd Cox, Danny Cooper, Brendon O’Connor, International Journal: Canada’s Journal of Global Policy Analysis, 78 (3), 2023.

In September 2021, Australia, the US, and the United Kingdom entered into a new trilateral security pact, AUKUS. Central to AUKUS is Australia acquiring nuclear-powered submarines, scheduled to begin delivery in the 2030s. AUKUS was announced by Australia’s previous conservative government, but it has also won the strong support of the new Labor government. The rationale behind AUKUS emphasizes growing security challenges in the Indo-Pacific and the advantages of joint capabilities and interoperability in the context of China’s growing assertiveness in the region. This article examines AUKUS through the lens of China’s rise and the contradictory economic and security imperatives that the agreement poses for Australia. We argue that AUKUS is the latest expression of Australia’s strategic culture, which is premised on a fear of abandonment and a conviction that Australia’s core security interests can only be guaranteed by the support of the US. Yet this position harbours risks that are not widely acknowledged. These include risks to Australia’s sovereignty and other risks arising from the uncertainties of the US position in Asia and the volatility of US domestic politics.

https://doi.org/10.1177/00207020231195631

“AUKUS and India’s Indo-Pacific Strategy”, by Laxman Kumar Behera, International Journal: Canada’s Journal of Global Policy Analysis 78 (3), 2023.

The rollout of AUKUS represents a tectonic shift in the geopolitical rivalry between China and other Indo-Pacific nations. The coming together of three major democratic countries in a strategic technology pact to counter the authoritarian China in the Indo-Pacific could not have come at a more opportune time for India, which is facing increasing Chinese hostility on its northern land borders and strategic encirclement in South Asia and the Indian Ocean Region (IOR). This article discusses AUKUS’s potential impacts on India and examines India’s Indo-Pacific strategy, its participation in the Quad, and its naval strategy. I argue that, on balance, AUKUS’s benefits for India far outweigh its costs.

https://doi.org/10.1177/00207020231197785

“Bound to Lead: US-Taiwan Relations, Security Networks, and The Future of AUKUS”, by Christina Lai, International Journal: Canada’s Journal of Global Policy Analysis, 78 (3), 2023.

In 2021 the US, UK, and Australia established a trilateral security partnership known as AUKUS. This new security arrangement carries strategic implications for Taiwan’s national security and prospects for regional order in Asia. It also leads to empirical puzzles: how will members of multiple alliances respond to rising threats? Under what conditions can a patron state avoid unwanted entrapment and imperial overstretch?
This article contributes to existing scholarship in US foreign policy and alliance management in Asia. It offers concrete thoughts on how a US policy of strategic clarity toward Taiwan and its contingency would enhance AUKUS’s resilience, while US allies in Asia and Europe could maintain a collective stance of strategic ambiguity that would lessen internal tensions among the member states. Such an arrangement could not only help stabilize Asia’s regional order, but also secure Taiwan’s autonomy against Beijing’s forced reunification.

https://doi.org/10.1177/00207020231197761

“Strategic hedgers? Australia and Canada’s defence adaptation to the global power transition”, by Maxandre Fortier, Justin Massie, International Journal: Canada’s Journal of Global Policy Analysis 78 (3), 2023.

The intensification of rivalries between the US and China, and, in recent years, between the US and Russia, has deeply affected how middle powers relate to these great powers. Scholars have argued that middle powers are increasingly adopting “hedging” strategies to maximize their benefits and limit the consequences of the great power competition for their security and status. This paper revisits the concept of hedging and assesses whether two prominent US allies—Australia and Canada—have resorted to hedging in place of conventional alternatives like bandwagoning and balancing. The paper systematically compares Australia’s and Canada’s threat perceptions and defence policies to ascertain whether they have shifted their policies in the wake of the US’s relative decline. Since our study began, in 2008, we have found instances where the two allies resorted to hedging. However, evidence shows that when pressured to make a choice, Australia and Canada have closed ranks with the US against revisionist powers. Our paper suggests that threat perceptions play a fundamental role in this. Going forward, it would suggest that the US is in a stronger position than commonly assumed. As the competition between Washington and revisionist great powers increases, the former’s ability to build credible coalitions is expected to improve as it will rely on more dependable allies.

https://doi.org/10.1177/00207020231195633

2022

”Conflict management or conflict resolution: how do major powers conceive the role of the United Nations in peacebuilding?”, by Fanny Badache, Sara Hellmüller, Bilal Salaymeh, Contemporary Security Policy Volume 43, Issue 4, 2022.

This article examines how major powers conceive the role of the United Nations (UN) in peacebuilding. We conceptualize the UN’s role along the distinction between conflict management and conflict resolution and distinguish between the types of tasks and the approach the UN can adopt. We map states’ conceptions of the UN’s role in peacebuilding by coding peace-related speeches at the UN Security Council (1991–2020) delivered by China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom, the United States as well as Brazil, South Africa, and Turkey as rising regional powers. Our findings show that states’ conceptions differ regarding the type of tasks the UN should do. However, the main fault line between the countries lie in the approach the UN should adopt to conduct peacebuilding tasks. We conclude that major powers see a role for the UN beyond mere conflict management as long as it is done with respect for national sovereignty.

Link: https://doi.org/10.1080/13523260.2022.2147334 

“Brazil’s strategic diplomacy for maritime security and safety”, by Ana Flávia Barros-Platiau, Jorge Gomes do Cravo Barros, Contemporary Politics, published online 25 August 2021.

Abstract: Even though Brazil adopted new diplomatic priorities since 2019, the maritime security and safety agenda has remained rather stable under the Blue Amazon paradigm. We examine the global, regional, and domestic systems within which Brazil’s maritime security and safety are embedded. While Brazil has no regional enemies, the ‘2019 black August’ oil spill, polluting vast parts of the country’s coastline, may be considered a tipping point since it led Brazilian authorities to revisit how the issue is framed on the national agenda. Applying the strategic diplomacy policy framework, we suggest three entry points for Brasilia to navigate in the near future, including the nexi between maritime security and safety, international and regional cooperation efforts, and the governance of Antarctica. They are all inextricably connected and key to Brazilian diplomacy, economy and geopolitics.

Link: https://doi.org/10.1080/13569775.2021.1968569

“Identity Management and Role Branding in Security Affairs: Alliance Building in Argentine Foreign Policy”, by Cameron G Thies, Leslie E Wehner, Journal of Global Security Studies 6 (4): ogaa055, 2021. 

Abstract: This paper argues that states needing to engage in short-term strategic manipulation of their identity will often turn to branding strategies. Branding allows leaders the flexibility to adopt new roles or reimagine existing roles to fit with the current security environment. Drawing on insights from role theory, social identity, and branding, we develop a theoretical framework to understand how leaders innovate in roles. We apply this framework to two episodes of Argentine–US relations. The first case focuses on the Argentine role of active independent (1933–1945) despite US efforts to ascribe the faithful ally role. Only near the conclusion of the war did Perón transition to an ally partner role for strategic reasons and without much of a branding strategy. The second case is that of Argentina’s adoption of the faithful ally role with the United States accompanied by a strong branding strategy under President Menem beginning in 1989. While innovation in the first case was possible without branding (though short-lived), the second case shows a more substantive transformation in Argentina’s role set. Branding helps to carve out space in the role set for new roles that may compete with existing ones and ensure their successful adoption and enactment.

Link: https://doi.org/10.1093/jogss/ogaa055

“Latin American and Caribbean Regionalism during the Covid-19 Pandemic: Saved by Functionalism?”, by Lorena Ruano, Natalia Saltalamacchia, The International Spectator 56 (2): 93–113, 2021.

Abstract: Covid-19 arrived in Latin America in a context of ideological polarisation among national governments and internal socio-political turmoil, which bode badly for its numerous and overlapping regional groupings. However, in a manner suggested by functionalist theories, some of them have “found refuge” in technical/expert cooperation and side-stepped political paralysis with different degrees of success. With institutions and previous experience in health issues, CARICOM and SICA had a significant role in the management of the pandemic, while CELAC revived by promoting technical cooperation. In contrast, MERCOSUR failed to overcome the political rift among its members, so technical cooperation occurred, yet remained limited.

Link: https://doi.org/10.1080/03932729.2021.1900666

“Regional energy security goes South: Examining energy integration in South America”, by Thauan Santos, Energy Research & Social Science 76, published online 6 May 2021.

Abstract: This article proposes to promote a regional approach to achieving energy security in South America. To this end, it first discusses the concept of energy security, concluding that it is a concept slippery, hard to define universally, because it is polysemic, multi-dimensional and context-dependent. Analyzing the South American case, initially focusing only on the Mercosur countries, we identify that there are different regional integration initiatives, such as the case of Itaipu Dam and GASBOL Pipeline, however the experiences are exclusively based on binational initiatives. Through an energy modeling called Open Source energy Modelling System using a new framework named South America Model Base (OSeMOSYS SAMBA), four scenarios are created with different levels of energy integration in the region. It is concluded that more integrated scenarios lead to a reduction in the need to increase installed capacity, as well as lower geographic and socio-environmental impacts, due to resource optimization and greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation.

Link: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.erss.2021.102050

“The Militarization of Law Enforcement: Evidence from Latin America”, by Gustavo A. Flores-Macías, Jessica Zarkin, Perspectives on Politics 19 (2): 519–538, 2021.

Abstract: What are the political consequences of militarizing law enforcement? Across the world, law enforcement has become increasingly militarized over the last three decades, with civilian police operating more like armed forces and soldiers replacing civilian police in law enforcement tasks. Scholarly, policy, and journalistic attention has mostly focused on the first type, but has neglected the study of three main areas toward which we seek to contribute: 1) the constabularization of the military—i.e., when the armed forces take on the responsibilities of civilian law enforcement agencies, 2) the extent to which this process has taken place outside of the United States, and 3) its political consequences. Toward this end, we unpack the concept of militarized law enforcement, develop theoretical expectations about its political consequences, take stock of militarization in Latin America, and evaluate whether expectations have played out in the region. We show that the distinction between civilian and military law enforcement typical of democratic regimes has been severely blurred in the region. Further, we argue that the constabularization of the military has had important consequences for the quality of democracy in the region by undermining citizen security, human rights, police reform, and the legal order.

Link: https://doi.org/10.1017/S1537592719003906

“Challenging the liberal order: the US hegemon as a revisionist power”, by Steve Chan, International Affairs 97 (5): 1335–1352, 2021.

Abstract: Current discourse on International Relations conflates international order and the interstate distribution of power. Many studies fail to clarify the concept of international order or to provide systematic empirical analysis that compares states’ conduct in relation to this order. The prevailing tendency relies instead on rhetorical assertion or definitional fiat to attribute revisionist and status-quo motivations to different countries. For example, power-transition theory claims that rising states are typically revisionist, whereas established states are committed to the status quo. This article presents a contrarian view, arguing that the dominant or established state can be a revisionist. This state is not forever committed to those rules and institutions of international order that it has played a decisive role in fostering. Conversely, a rising state is not inevitably bent on challenging the order that has enabled its ascendance. Revisionism is thus not unique to a rising power; moreover, this state is not destined to be a challenger to international order and an instigator of systemic war as typically depicted in the current literature. I advance these propositions in the context of recent conduct by China and the US, suggesting that whereas China has become less revisionist over time (even while its power has increased), the US has become more so especially during the Trump administration. The major impetus challenging the liberal international order has come more from domestic sources in the West than from China.

Link: https://doi.org/10.1093/ia/iiab074 

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